BY DAVID KRONKE

>TV WRITER

If the Writers Guild of America decides to strike Wednesday - and good luck finding someone in Hollywood who predicts it won't - viewers will notice some changes immediately, with others manifesting themselves in the coming months.

But the most profound changes could alter the entire landscape of broadcast-network television.

"The industry is currently operating by rules that predate the massive technological changes that have occurred," observed Robert Thompson, director of the Bleier Center for Television and Popular Culture at Syracuse University.

"Evolution doesn't take place in nice ways. There can be cataclysmic readjustments - and a strike is one of them."

Last week, the WGA voted in a landslide - 90 percent approved their leadership to call for a strike if negotiations aren't settled by Tuesday night.

The Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers haven't exactly approached negotiations with a sense of urgency. It seems both sides welcome a strike, albeit for different reasons.

Few on either side wish to comment publicly on the clash; most offer homilies such as this statement from ABC: "We are hoping for the best and preparing for the worst."

At stake are a number of issues that the WGA feels it has been exploited on for years (see sidebar, "Why they fight"). A prolonged strike could have the same chilling effect that the last WGA strike, back in 1988, had: Nearly 10 percent of the audience who abandoned the networks during that time never returned. And today there are far more entertainment options awaiting impatient viewers.

One WGA member, requesting anonymity, told the Daily News, "Do I think that's worth striking for even if it does profound damage to the industry? Yes, I do. Damage to the industry may necessary."

Putting it mildly, he added, "This is not going to be a cakewalk."

Meanwhile, the networks have long been suffering from both viewer attrition and increased production costs and have been insisting on a new business model. They say the WGA needs to be realistic and accept that broadcast's cash cow is rapidly withering.

"When you're looking at a lower-rated universe, you have to adapt and evolve," said a network executive who did not want to be identified. "We're forced to adapt to a lower-rated universe, and a strike will only accelerate a new economic model faster."

That new economic model could include strategies that could further hurt writers, as well as others in the industry.

Network infrastructure would likely be trimmed. Development of network programming could be curtailed. (Currently, broadcast networks produce dozens of TV pilots each year, then pick only a handful to air. Cable networks are much more stringent with their speculative production budgets, airing roughly one new show for every two pilots produced.)

The amount of scripted programming ordered could be reduced as well.

This season, in what was perceived as an attempt to lower production costs, an unprecedented number of foreign-born actors, accustomed to smaller paychecks, were hired to play American characters in shows such as "Bionic Woman," "Pushing Daisies," "Journeyman," "Life" and "Moonlight."

"There's a definite sea change coming," one network source declared. "This labor dispute is going to accelerate change one way or another."

"It's a very dangerous time" for a strike, insisted Media-

Week's ratings analyst Marc Berman. "It could change everything. It's already a changing world now."

Particularly given that the new fall season didn't exactly lure a lot of viewers back to the broadcast networks. "This wasn't the greatest crop of new fall shows," a network executive conceded. "It's not like there are new shows lighting the lamp."

In the short term, if a strike occurs, some viewers will notice changes immediately. Late-night shows such as "The Tonight Show With Jay Leno," "The Daily Show With Jon Stewart" and "The Colbert Report" will disappear immediately, unless talk-show hosts opt to jettison their monologues and comedy bits.

At this point, enough prime-time scripts have been shot to ensure that new installments will air into January. Moreover, the networks have been ordering up more reality shows to fill the void, and newsmagazines could proliferate as they did back in '88.

"They'll be putting in more reality shows and game shows, which don't cost as much to produce," Berman said. "If they do reasonably well, they could replace more scripted programming, reducing the opportunities for writers. If a scripted show is not in production, and a non-

scripted show is doing OK, the network could have a change of heart and say, `OK, screw you.' "

And since the broadcast networks have ties to cable networks, they could introduce cable shows to a potentially larger viewership.

ABC could air shows from ABC Family and the Disney Channel. NBC could cull product from several cable networks, including USA ("Burn Notice," "Monk," "Psych"), Sci Fi Channel ("Battlestar Galactica") and Bravo ("Project Runway"). Fox, always an edgy network, has the even edgier programming from FX ("Damages," "Rescue Me"), although its standards and practices department would be challenged to pass them for broadcast. CBS could borrow from Showtime ("The Brotherhood").

And though they're smaller than they once were, the networks could also draw from their film libraries.

"We won't go dark," one network source vows. "You won't be seeing a test pattern."

Still, a prolonged strike could stamp out midseason series and irretrievably damage shows currently on the air, particularly the new series. Nominal hits such as "Pushing Daisies" could lose momentum.

"The new shows are not at a point where the viewers are accustomed to watching every week," Berman said. "This is very dangerous even with established shows: Look at `Lost' last season. It came on for seven episodes, then it went off the air. And when it returned, it was never the same. Both `Heroes' and `Jericho' took a hiatus that they shouldn't have and lost viewers."

Neither side in these negotiations should be taking as glib a stance as they appear to be. As one writer put it, "In the next decade, we'll look back at what happens over the next six to 12 months as a watershed moment (in the industry). We're potentially looking at a perfect storm."

David Kronke, (818) 713-3638 david.kronke@dailynews.com

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